1
Eugene Smith
5yo Gelding · 9-13
Martinique · Prix Georges Langeron Stakes · 7f 209y
#3
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength24%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.9
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | Saint-Cloud | 3 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-04-10 | Saint-Cloud | 3 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2025-11-13 | Pau | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-10-22 | Pau | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-09-25 | Chantilly | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-08-29 | La Teste De Buch | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 3-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength52%
Delivery trend -4.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/05/2025 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 26/06/2025 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 73% | +0.02 |
| 27/07/2025 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 54% | -0.15 |
| 29/08/2025 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 67% | -0.18 |
| 25/09/2025 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 73% | +0.10 |
| 22/10/2025 | 2nd | 6/5 | 94% | 86% | -0.08 |
| 13/11/2025 | 4th | 4/7 | 97% | 50% | -0.47 |
| 10/04/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 71% | -0.05 |
| 01/05/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 56% | -0.23 |