4
Starzo Fal
5yo Colt · 9-10
Martinique · Prix Georges Langeron Stakes · 7f 209y
#5
Rank
Odds
9/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength27%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.9 /10 (raw 5.9)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.6
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-10 | Bordeaux Le Bouscat | ? | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-02-24 | Lyon La Soie | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-08 | Pau | 3 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-01-20 | Pau | 3 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-12-29 | Deauville | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-12-02 | Deauville | ? | 14th | 14th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength63%
Delivery trend +4.5% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/09/2025 | 10th | 8/1 | 58% | 10% | -0.48 |
| 20/10/2025 | 16th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 10/11/2025 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 57% | +0.10 |
| 02/12/2025 | 14th | 14/1 | 26% | 13% | -0.13 |
| 29/12/2025 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 70% | -0.06 |
| 20/01/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 57% | +0.10 |
| 08/02/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 67% | +0.04 |
| 24/02/2026 | 2nd | 17/2 | 55% | 83% | +0.28 |
| 10/03/2026 | 13th | 7/1 | 63% | 20% | -0.43 |