4
Luzitanie
4yo Filly · 9-8
Martinique · Prix Des Monceliniers Handicap · 1m 1f 97y
#2
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
5%
Place Prob
16%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.4
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | Martinique | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-11-08 | Martinique | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-05-17 | Martinique | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2024-07-31 | Clairefontaine | ? | 10th | 11th | −1 |
| 2024-07-08 | Dax | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2024-06-23 | Dax | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength87%
Delivery trend -0.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/06/2024 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 75% | +0.22 |
| 08/07/2024 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 82% | +0.13 |
| 31/07/2024 | 10th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 17/05/2025 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 08/11/2025 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 83% | +0.20 |
| 16/05/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |