Basin Bay

3yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 58

Meadowlands · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m

Rank

Odds

15/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▼3

Strength35%

What the class read says

Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 7.0)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C4.5

Today:

Class gap: +3.0

Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2025-11-27	Penn National	?	7th	3rd	+3	6.6

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish8th of 80% of fieldRange 5-10 · 50%

▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price

Trend▲

Strength25%

Delivery trend +0.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 8. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
27/11/2025	7th	14/1	26%	33%	+0.07