Liberty Bay
4yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 61
Meadowlands · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m
#6
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 5.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Laurel Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-20 | Delaware Park | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-08-01 | Delaware Park | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2025-11-08 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-10-19 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-09-21 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +0.6% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 4th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/11/2024 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 29% | +0.02 |
| 21/09/2025 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 38% | -0.23 |
| 19/10/2025 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 08/11/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 01/08/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 22% | -0.15 |
| 20/08/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 29% | +0.02 |
| 12/09/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 13% | -0.14 |