Crystal Mariner
6yo Gelding · 11-12
Navan · BAR 1 Betting 'Download Our App' Maiden Hurdle · 1m 7f 165y
#2
Rank
Odds
13/2
Win Prob
30%
Place Prob
32%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 6 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.0 /10 (raw 4.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Newton Abbot | 4 | 2nd | -3th | +4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Ballinrobe | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-05 | Southwell | 4 | 4th | -1th | +4 |
| 2026-06-29 | Kempton | 4 | 5th | 0th | +4 |
| 2026-06-08 | Leicester | 4 | 8th | 3rd | +4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Chepstow | 4 | 4th | -1th | +4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 19. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/09/2025 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 13/10/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 03/11/2025 | 11th | 14/1 | 26% | 9% | -0.17 |
| 21/05/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 40% | -0.28 |
| 08/06/2026 | 8th | 66/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 29/06/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 05/07/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 57% | -0.17 |
| 10/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 93% | +0.17 |
| 07/09/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |