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8yo Gelding · 11-12 · OR 113

Navan · BAR 1 Betting 'Download Our App' Maiden Hurdle · 1m 7f 165y

#8

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#8

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Fairly useful hurdler, best effort when third in Punchestown maiden in February. No impact in 2 Flat outings over the summer but right back on his game when runner-up back hurdling 12 days ago. Sets the standard.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 9.0 /10 (raw 6.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C9.2
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA92 @ Naas 23/03/2025 · Pos 7th of 15 · OR 92 · 7f Sft 142 · below its mark23/03/2025 · OR 92 par23/0392OR 92BHA91 @ Galway 01/08/2025 · Pos 9th of 18 · OR 91 · 1m4f Yie 130 · below its mark01/08/2025 · OR 91 parBHA89 @ Leopardstown 19/10/2025 · Pos 10th of 16 · OR 89 · 1m4f Hvy 135 · below its mark19/10/2025 · OR 89 par19/1089OR 89BHA112 @ Naas 15/12/2025 · Pos 7th of 16 · OR 112 · 2m Sft 174 · below its mark15/12/2025 · OR 112 parBHA112 @ Leopardstown 27/12/2025 · Pos 12th of 17 · OR 112 · 2m Yie 141 · below its mark27/12/2025 · OR 112 par27/12112OR 112C8 @ Punchestown 18/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 16 · OR 110 · 2m157y Sft 166 · below its mark18/02/2026 · OR 110 parBHA86 @ Curragh 03/06/2026 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR 86 · 1m6f Yie 120 · below its mark03/06/2026 · OR 86 par3/0686OR 86BHA84 @ Leopardstown 16/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 84 · 1m2f Goo 144 · below its mark16/07/2026 · OR 84 parC8 @ Galway 07/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 20 · OR 114 · 2m160y Yie 166 · below its mark07/09/2026 · OR 114 par7/09C8OR 114projClass-projected finish: 13th of 17
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-07Galway?2nd2nd0
2026-07-16LeopardstownBHA849th10th−0
2026-06-03CurraghBHA8612th13th−1
2026-02-18Punchestown?3rd3rd0
2025-12-27LeopardstownBHA11212th16th−3
2025-12-15NaasBHA1127th11th−3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/0315/123/067/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1961% of fieldRange 3-14 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength57%

Delivery trend -6.2% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 19. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/03/20257th40/10%57%+0.57
01/08/20259th16/116%53%+0.37
19/10/202510th33/10%40%+0.40
15/12/20257th7/163%60%-0.03
27/12/202512th6/168%31%-0.37
18/02/20263rd8/158%87%+0.29
03/06/202612th40/10%0%0.00
16/07/20269th25/10%0%0.00
07/09/20262nd7/491%95%+0.04