Hazem
5yo Gelding · 11-12
Navan · BAR 1 Betting 'Download Our App' Maiden Hurdle · 1m 7f 165y
#12
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 8.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-21 | Yarmouth | 5 | 10th | 6th | +3 |
| 2025-09-26 | Newcastle | 5 | 4th | 0th | +3 |
| 2024-06-10 | Windsor | 5 | 11th | 7th | +3 |
| 2024-05-23 | Chelmsford City | 4 | 9th | 4th | +4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -0.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 14th of 19.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/05/2024 | 9th | 9/1 | 53% | 47% | -0.06 |
| 10/06/2024 | 11th | 17/2 | 55% | 29% | -0.27 |
| 26/09/2025 | 4th | 11/1 | 42% | 25% | -0.17 |
| 21/10/2025 | 10th | 11/1 | 42% | 31% | -0.11 |