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13

Ivatt

4yo Gelding · 11-10

Navan · BAR 1 Betting 'Download Our App' Maiden Hurdle · 1m 7f 165y

#4

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

4%

Rank

#4

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Fairly useful middle-distance handicapper on Flat. Looked likely to benefit from the experience when 3¾ lengths third of 8 to Louiescall in maiden hurdle at Tramore. Should have more to offer to top yard.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼3
Strength100%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 6 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.7 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.7
Today:
Class gap: +3.3
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Newmarket 23/10/2024 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR - · 1m2f Sft 133 · HIGHER CLASS23/1032 @ Musselburgh 19/04/2025 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR - · 1m4f104y Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS2 @ Kempton 09/07/2025 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR - · 1m2f219y Sta 130 · HIGHER CLASS9/0724 @ Kempton 11/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 79 · 1m3f219y Sta 134 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/08/2025 · OR 79 par3 @ Newcastle 21/08/2025 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR 79 · 1m4f98y Std 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/08/2025 · OR 79 par21/083OR 793 @ Doncaster 11/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 81 · 1m3f197y Goo 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/09/2025 · OR 81 par2 @ Newmarket 10/10/2025 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 82 · 1m4f Goo 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/10/2025 · OR 82 par10/102OR 82BHA81 @ Galway 01/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 16 · OR 81 · 1m3f180y Yie 141 · below its mark01/08/2026 · OR 81 parC8 @ Tramore 16/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR - · 2m140y Goo 15516/08C8projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 17
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-16Tramore?3rd3rd0
2026-08-01GalwayBHA816th6th−0
2025-10-10Newmarket28th1st+6
2025-09-11Doncaster34th-2th+5
2025-08-21Newcastle36th0th+5
2025-08-11Kempton42nd-3th+4

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/1011/0810/1016/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1989% of fieldRange 1-13 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength84%

Delivery trend -0.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 19.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/10/20242nd16/116%83%+0.68
19/04/20253rd8/1196%50%-0.46
09/07/20255th11/142%64%+0.22
11/08/20252nd9/488%80%-0.08
21/08/20256th5/174%58%-0.15
11/09/20254th15/261%77%+0.16
10/10/20258th14/126%36%+0.10
01/08/20266th18/15%67%+0.61
16/08/20263rd11/486%71%-0.14