8
Minella Post
7yo Gelding · 11-12 · OR 113
Navan · BAR 1 Betting 'Download Our App' Maiden Hurdle · 1m 7f 165y
#5
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#5
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 7.3 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C9.2
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | Ballinrobe | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Galway | BHA114 | −3 | ||
| 2026-07-10 | Cork | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-04-29 | Punchestown | BHA116 | 14th | 18th | −4 |
| 2025-02-03 | Punchestown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2024-12-29 | Leopardstown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1978% of fieldRange 1-14 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength63%
Delivery trend -6.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 19. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/05/2024 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 85% | +0.48 |
| 16/11/2024 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |
| 10/12/2024 | 5th | 50/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 29/12/2024 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 56% | +0.19 |
| 03/02/2025 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 70% | -0.01 |
| 29/04/2026 | 14th | 14/1 | 26% | 43% | +0.17 |
| 24/08/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 93% | +0.06 |