9
O'Reilly
8yo Gelding · 11-12 · OR 110
Navan · BAR 1 Betting 'Download Our App' Maiden Hurdle · 1m 7f 165y
#6
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#6
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength29%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 6.5)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Curragh | BHA80 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-05-04 | Down Royal | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-11-01 | Down Royal | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2025-10-15 | Punchestown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-03 | Gowran Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-09-26 | Listowel | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1950% of fieldRange 7-19 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength16%
Delivery trend -2.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 19. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/2025 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 62% | +0.62 |
| 29/06/2025 | 15th | 33/1 | 0% | 42% | +0.42 |
| 01/08/2025 | 12th | 50/1 | 0% | 35% | +0.35 |
| 26/09/2025 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 80% | +0.09 |
| 03/10/2025 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 82% | +0.19 |
| 15/10/2025 | 2nd | 11/1 | 42% | 92% | +0.50 |
| 01/11/2025 | 11th | 13/2 | 66% | 9% | -0.57 |
| 04/05/2026 | 6th | 28/1 | 0% | 72% | +0.72 |
| 29/08/2026 | 13th | 50/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |