10
Penny Express
6yo Gelding · 11-12 · OR 102
Navan · BAR 1 Betting 'Download Our App' Maiden Hurdle · 1m 7f 165y
#1
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
67%
Place Prob
47%
Rank
#1
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | Wexford | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Wexford | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-10 | Kilbeggan | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Listowel | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-14 | Clonmel | BHA107 | −3 | ||
| 2025-08-15 | Tramore | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1967% of fieldRange 10-19 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength11%
Delivery trend -4.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 19. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/05/2025 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 75% | +0.33 |
| 02/06/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 93% | +0.17 |
| 15/06/2025 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 93% | +0.10 |
| 03/07/2025 | 4th | 11/1 | 42% | 79% | +0.36 |
| 15/08/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 75% | -0.04 |
| 30/05/2026 | 4th | 28/1 | 0% | 81% | +0.81 |
| 10/07/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 43% | -0.36 |
| 23/07/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 75% | -0.04 |
| 07/08/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 85% | +0.00 |