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4yo Gelding · 11-10

Navan · BAR 1 Betting 'Download Our App' Maiden Hurdle · 1m 7f 165y

#16

Rank

Odds

150/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#16

★ Timeform

Commentary

Has looked limited in various company.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼3
Strength96%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 5 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 9.6)

Highest class: BHA40
Recent avg: C5.0
Today:
Class gap: +3.1
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Gowran Park 13/08/2025 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR - · 1m1f100y Goo 13413/08C8C8 @ Roscommon 01/09/2025 · Pos 7th of 15 · OR - · 1m4f17y Sft 134BHA50 @ Bellewstown 02/10/2025 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 50 · 1m4f77y Sft 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/10/2025 · OR 50 par2/1050OR 50BHA48 @ Roscommon 13/10/2025 · Pos 11th of 16 · OR 48 · 1m4f46y Sft 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/10/2025 · OR 48 parBHA45 @ Down Royal 20/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 45 · 1m4f207y Sft 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 45 par20/0645OR 45BHA44 @ Tramore 07/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 44 · 1m4f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/07/2026 · OR 44 parC8 @ Wexford 23/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR - · 2m150y Gd 15423/07C8BHA40 @ Sligo 05/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 14 · OR 40 · 1m5f56y Yie 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/08/2026 · OR 40 parBHA40 @ Navan 27/08/2026 · Pos 19th of 22 · OR 40 · 1m6f Goo 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/08/2026 · OR 40 par27/0840OR 40projClass-projected finish: 9th of 17
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-27NavanBHA4019th14th+4
2026-08-05SligoBHA409th4th+4
2026-07-23Wexford?5th5th0
2026-07-07TramoreBHA448th4th+4
2026-06-20Down RoyalBHA457th3rd+4
2025-10-13RoscommonBHA4811th7th+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/0813/1023/0727/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 1933% of fieldRange 5-18 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength40%

Delivery trend +1.6% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 13th of 19.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/08/20258th80/10%22%+0.22
01/09/20257th125/10%57%+0.57
02/10/20259th12/137%11%-0.26
13/10/202511th50/10%33%+0.33
20/06/20267th25/10%54%+0.54
07/07/20268th18/15%36%+0.31
23/07/20265th250/10%67%+0.67
05/08/20269th33/10%38%+0.38
27/08/202619th40/10%14%+0.14