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5

Hopeful Hero

5yo Gelding · 11-5 · OR 113

Navan · SIS, Supporting Irish Racing Handicap Hurdle · 1m 7f 165y

#4

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#4

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Got off the mark in a maiden hurdle at Bellewstown in July. Scoped dirty when below form next time but got straight back on the up since, shaping really well when collared only late by one at Kilbeggan 2 weeks ago. Of serious interest,

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 3.8)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C9.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Roscommon 29/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 15 · OR - · 1m7f135y Goo 16129/09C8C0 @ Punchestown 15/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR - · 2m95y Goo 157C0 @ Down Royal 31/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 4 · OR - · 2m190y Goo 16031/10C?C8 @ Naas 09/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR - · 2m Sft 154C8 @ Sligo 09/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 16 · OR - · 2m1f157y Yie 1669/06C8C8 @ Bellewstown 04/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 16 · OR 104 · 2m1f40y Gd 158 · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 104 parBHA109 @ Galway 27/07/2026 · Pos 15th of 20 · OR 109 · 2m130y Gd 165 · below its mark27/07/2026 · OR 109 par27/07109OR 109BHA109 @ Down Royal 28/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 109 · 2m1f87y Goo 165 · below its mark28/08/2026 · OR 109 parBHA110 @ Kilbeggan 04/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 110 · 2m26y Goo 154 · below its mark04/09/2026 · OR 110 par4/09110OR 110projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 15
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-04KilbegganBHA1102nd2nd0
2026-08-28Down RoyalBHA1093rd3rd0
2026-07-27GalwayBHA10915th15th0
2026-07-04Bellewstown?1st1st0
2026-06-09Sligo?3rd3rd0
2025-11-09Naas?3rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/099/1127/074/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1571% of fieldRange 4-13 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength47%

Delivery trend -4.5% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 5th of 15. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/09/20253rd12/137%86%+0.49
15/10/20252nd11/486%89%+0.03
31/10/20252nd10/147%67%+0.19
09/11/20253rd13/266%50%-0.16
09/06/20263rd5/174%87%+0.13
04/07/20261st11/271%100%+0.29
27/07/202615th9/276%26%-0.50
28/08/20263rd4/179%85%+0.06
04/09/20262nd3/184%88%+0.03