7
Lambay Island
6yo Gelding · 11-1 · OR 109
Navan · SIS, Supporting Irish Racing Handicap Hurdle · 1m 7f 165y
#10
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 6.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-28 | Leopardstown | BHA110 | 17th | 17th | 0 |
| 2025-11-20 | Thurles | BHA109 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-16 | Thurles | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-03-17 | Wexford | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-02-24 | Punchestown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-01-16 | Fairyhouse | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 1521% of fieldRange 1-15 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength38%
Delivery trend -4.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 12th of 15. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/12/2024 | 11th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 16/01/2025 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 24/02/2025 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 70% | +0.07 |
| 17/03/2025 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 77% | +0.06 |
| 16/10/2025 | 3rd | 6/4 | 92% | 67% | -0.25 |
| 20/11/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 91% | +0.17 |
| 28/12/2025 | 17th | 11/2 | 71% | 27% | -0.44 |