IvyArcIvyArc
6

Lips Freedom

6yo Gelding · 11-5 · OR 113

Navan · SIS, Supporting Irish Racing Handicap Hurdle · 1m 7f 165y

#9

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Showed much improved form in this sphere when winning handicap at Downpatrick in March and then defying an 11 lb higher mark at Killarney in July. Struggled under a change of tactics at Galway but not judged too harshly on a Flat spin latest.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 9.5 /10 (raw 9.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C9.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA94 @ Leopardstown 19/10/2025 · Pos 11th of 16 · OR 94 · 1m4f Hvy 140 · below its mark19/10/2025 · OR 94 par19/1094OR 94C8 @ Down Royal 01/11/2025 · Pos 12th of 15 · OR - · 2m190y Yie 166C8 @ Naas 09/11/2025 · Pos 11th of 16 · OR - · 2m Sft 1669/11C8BHA96 @ Leopardstown 28/12/2025 · Pos 13th of 23 · OR 96 · 2m4f150y Goo 142 · below its mark28/12/2025 · OR 96 parBHA95 @ Down Royal 20/01/2026 · Pos 11th of 16 · OR 95 · 2m1f33y Sft 164 · below its mark20/01/2026 · OR 95 par20/0195OR 95BHA93 @ Downpatrick 29/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 93 · 2m1f165y Yie 149 · beat its mark29/03/2026 · OR 93 parBHA104 @ Killarney 16/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 15 · OR 104 · 2m1f Goo 160 · beat its mark16/07/2026 · OR 104 par16/07104OR 104BHA113 @ Galway 01/08/2026 · Pos 13th of 20 · OR 113 · 2m175y Goo 149 · below its mark01/08/2026 · OR 113 parBHA90 @ Curragh 13/09/2026 · Pos 18th of 22 · OR 90 · 1m2f Goo 127 · below its mark13/09/2026 · OR 90 par13/0990OR 90projClass-projected finish: 12th of 15
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-13CurraghBHA9018th18th0
2026-08-01GalwayBHA11313th13th0
2026-07-16KillarneyBHA1041st1st0
2026-03-29DownpatrickBHA931st1st0
2026-01-20Down RoyalBHA9511th11th0
2025-12-28LeopardstownBHA9613th13th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/1028/1216/0713/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1536% of fieldRange 7-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength40%

Delivery trend -3.8% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 15. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/10/202511th22/10%33%+0.33
01/11/202512th22/10%21%+0.21
09/11/202511th150/10%33%+0.33
28/12/202513th80/10%45%+0.45
20/01/202611th16/116%33%+0.18
29/03/20261st7/282%100%+0.18
16/07/20261st5/174%100%+0.26
01/08/202613th8/158%37%-0.21
13/09/202618th28/10%19%+0.19