4
Ma Belle Etoile
7yo Mare · 11-8 · OR 116
Navan · SIS, Supporting Irish Racing Handicap Hurdle · 1m 7f 165y
#5
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C9.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | Wexford | BHA117 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Killarney | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-30 | Wexford | BHA117 | 0 | ||
| 2026-06-12 | Fairyhouse | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-08-14 | Tramore | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-07-23 | Wexford | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1557% of fieldRange 1-15 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength38%
Delivery trend +1.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 15.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/06/2024 | 6th | 4/5 | 96% | 69% | -0.27 |
| 03/04/2025 | 2nd | 4/6 | 96% | 95% | -0.02 |
| 10/05/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 31/05/2025 | 5th | 2/1 | 89% | 0% | -0.89 |
| 23/07/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 14/08/2025 | 4th | 5/6 | 96% | 0% | -0.96 |
| 12/06/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 75% | +0.49 |
| 14/07/2026 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 45% | -0.18 |
| 07/08/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 71% | -0.05 |