13
Mary's Pride
9yo Gelding · 10-5 · OR 99
Navan · SIS, Supporting Irish Racing Handicap Hurdle · 1m 7f 165y
#14
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#14
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength7%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 7.2 /10 (raw 7.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C10.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | Sligo | BHA100 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Punchestown | BHA101 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-26 | Ballinrobe | BHA99 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-12-26 | Down Royal | BHA100 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2025-11-02 | Cork | BHA100 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-10-11 | Fairyhouse | BHA99 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish15th of 150% of fieldRange 6-15 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength12%
Delivery trend -3.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 15th of 15. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/10/2024 | 10th | 16/1 | 16% | 31% | +0.15 |
| 30/11/2024 | 21st | 40/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 15/12/2024 | 12th | 40/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 11/10/2025 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 82% | +0.82 |
| 02/11/2025 | 8th | 4/1 | 79% | 30% | -0.49 |
| 26/12/2025 | 13th | 12/1 | 37% | 37% | 0.00 |
| 26/05/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 93% | +0.67 |
| 07/06/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 60% | +0.07 |
| 12/07/2026 | 10th | 17/2 | 55% | 18% | -0.37 |