14
Pralognan
7yo Gelding · 10-4 · OR 98
Navan · SIS, Supporting Irish Racing Handicap Hurdle · 1m 7f 165y
#15
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#15
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 6.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | Downpatrick | BHA98 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-09 | Downpatrick | BHA98 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-11-27 | Thurles | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-11-26 | Dundalk | BHA73 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-11-02 | Cork | BHA97 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-10-04 | Curragh | BHA65 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1529% of fieldRange 1-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength67%
Delivery trend +2.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 15. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06/2025 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 01/08/2025 | 11th | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |
| 04/09/2025 | 9th | 11/4 | 86% | 38% | -0.47 |
| 04/10/2025 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 02/11/2025 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 80% | +0.54 |
| 26/11/2025 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 85% | +0.32 |
| 27/11/2025 | 5th | 80/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 09/08/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 63% | -0.03 |
| 18/09/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 64% | -0.15 |