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10

Simple Things

4yo Filly · 10-11 · OR 107

Navan · SIS, Supporting Irish Racing Handicap Hurdle · 1m 7f 165y

#2

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

4%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Lightly-raced 4-y-o who finished runner-up in mares handicap hurdles at Bellewstown/Wexford in the spring. Made the most of a good opportunity minus a hood back in maiden company at Tramore a month ago and she can remain competitive.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength8%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C10.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Fairyhouse 04/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR - · 2m Sft 1474/11C8C8 @ Fairyhouse 13/12/2025 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR - · 2m Sft 147C8 @ Punchestown 12/01/2026 · Pos 8th of 15 · OR - · 2m35y Sft 15412/01C8BHA105 @ Navan 21/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 105 · 2m Sft 141 · below its mark21/03/2026 · OR 105 parBHA104 @ Bellewstown 18/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 104 · 2m1f30y Yie 143 · below its mark18/04/2026 · OR 104 par18/04104OR 104BHA105 @ Wexford 16/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 105 · 2m4f Goo 153 · below its mark16/05/2026 · OR 105 parBHA108 @ Roscommon 08/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 108 · 2m4f Yie 141 · below its mark08/06/2026 · OR 108 par8/06108OR 108BHA108 @ Galway 29/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 20 · OR 108 · 2m110y Gd 145 · below its mark29/07/2026 · OR 108 parC8 @ Tramore 14/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 107 · 2m80y Gd 156 · beat its mark14/08/2026 · OR 107 par14/08C8OR 107projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 15
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-14Tramore?1st1st0
2026-07-29GalwayBHA1086th6th0
2026-06-08RoscommonBHA1085th5th0
2026-05-16WexfordBHA1052nd2nd0
2026-04-18BellewstownBHA1042nd2nd0
2026-03-21NavanBHA1056th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/1121/038/0614/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1593% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength87%

Delivery trend -1.8% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 15.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/11/20253rd16/116%85%+0.69
13/12/20257th4/179%45%-0.33
12/01/20268th33/10%50%+0.50
21/03/20266th16/116%55%+0.39
18/04/20262nd14/126%89%+0.63
16/05/20262nd7/282%92%+0.11
08/06/20265th4/179%50%-0.29
29/07/20266th20/10%74%+0.74
14/08/20261st6/492%100%+0.08