1

Any Chance

7yo Gelding · 11-12 · OR 94

Navan · BAR 1 Casino 'Slot Games & Live Casino' Maiden Hurdle · 2m 3f

#7

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#7

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Lightly-raced maiden. 16/1, fared easily best of those who raced towards the inside of track when eighth of 18 in handicap hurdle at Limerick (23f, good) in July. The clear form choice back in maiden company.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 9.0 /10 (raw 8.2)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Punchestown 11/12/2025 · Pos 10th of 18 · OR - · 2m3f Sft 16611/12C8C8 @ Fairyhouse 01/01/2026 · Pos 12th of 18 · OR - · 2m4f Yie 1661/01C8C8 @ Limerick 31/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR - · 2m Sft 16631/03C8BHA97 @ Wexford 16/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR 97 · 2m1f Goo 165 · below its mark16/05/2026 · OR 97 par16/0597OR 97BHA96 @ Limerick 02/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 18 · OR 96 · 2m6f120y Gd 164 · below its mark02/07/2026 · OR 96 par2/0796OR 96projClass-projected finish: 7th of 19
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-02LimerickBHA968th10th2
2026-05-16WexfordBHA976th8th2
2026-03-31Limerick?5th5th0
2026-01-01Fairyhouse?12th12th0
2025-12-11Punchestown?10th10th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today11/121/0131/0316/052/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1978% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength86%

Delivery trend -3.8% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 19. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
11/12/202510th150/10%47%+0.47
01/01/202612th300/10%35%+0.35
31/03/20265th22/10%64%+0.64
16/05/20266th9/153%58%+0.06
02/07/20268th16/116%59%+0.43