9

Banphrionsa Alainn

5yo Mare · 11-5 · OR 77

Navan · BAR 1 Casino 'Slot Games & Live Casino' Maiden Hurdle · 2m 3f

#2

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

66%

Place Prob

35%

Rank

#2

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Lightly-raced maiden. Pulled up in handicap hurdle at Downpatrick (2¼m, good, 25/1) 19 days ago. Cheekpieces go on for first time now.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 9.3 /10 (raw 9.3)

Highest class: BHA78
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Punchestown 26/01/2026 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR - · 2m Hvy 15926/01C8C8 @ Galway 01/08/2026 · Pos 12th of 19 · OR - · 2m175y Goo 1591/08C8C8 @ Tramore 14/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 15 · OR - · 2m5f Gd 16114/08C8projClass-projected finish: 5th of 19
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-31DownpatrickBHA78+0
2026-08-14Tramore?5th5th0
2026-08-01Galway?12th12th0
2026-01-26Punchestown?11th11th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/011/0814/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1967% of fieldRange 10-18 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength30%

Delivery trend +0.5% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 19.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/01/202611th125/10%23%+0.23
01/08/202612th300/10%39%+0.39
14/08/20265th10/147%71%+0.24