10

Bayswater Bloom

5yo Mare · 11-5

Navan · BAR 1 Casino 'Slot Games & Live Casino' Maiden Hurdle · 2m 3f

#18

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#18

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Modest form in bumpers before a never-dangerous seventh of 11 in novice hurdle at Kilbeggan (2m, good) on hurdles bow 16 days ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 7.2 /10 (raw 7.2)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Listowel 25/09/2025 · Pos 10th of 18 · OR - · 2m Goo 15725/09C?C0 @ Punchestown 15/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR - · 2m95y Goo 15015/10C?C0 @ Roscommon 06/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 16 · OR - · 1m7f204y Gd 1656/07C?C0 @ Galway 01/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 18 · OR - · 2m175y Goo 1651/08C?C8 @ Kilbeggan 03/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR - · 2m Goo 1513/09C8projClass-projected finish: 6th of 19
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-03Kilbeggan?7th7th0
2026-08-01Galway?8th8th0
2026-07-06Roscommon?6th6th0
2025-10-15Punchestown?5th5th0
2025-09-25Listowel?10th10th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/0915/106/071/083/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish18th of 196% of fieldRange 7-13 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength50%

Delivery trend -1.1% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 18th of 19.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/09/202510th150/10%47%+0.47
15/10/20255th125/10%56%+0.56
06/07/20266th33/10%67%+0.67
01/08/20268th33/10%59%+0.59
03/09/20267th66/10%40%+0.40