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12

Hometomayo

6yo Mare · 11-5

Navan · BAR 1 Casino 'Slot Games & Live Casino' Maiden Hurdle · 2m 3f

#13

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#13

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Lightly-raced maiden. First run since leaving Charles Reilly when a well-held seventh of 20 in novice hurdle at Galway (17f, good to soft, 125/1) 12 days ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 9.0 /10 (raw 9.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Roscommon 10/06/2024 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR - · 1m7f142y Gd 15210/06C?C0 @ Ballinrobe 21/07/2026 · Pos 11th of 13 · OR - · 1m7f119y Gd 16121/07C?C8 @ Galway 07/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 20 · OR - · 2m160y Yie 1597/09C8projClass-projected finish: 11th of 19
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-07Galway?7th7th0
2026-07-21Ballinrobe?11th11th0
2025-09-12Ballinrobe?0
2024-06-10Roscommon?9th9th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today10/0621/077/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1956% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength94%

Delivery trend +20.6% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 19. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
10/06/20249th125/10%27%+0.27
21/07/202611th40/10%17%+0.17
07/09/20267th125/10%68%+0.68