17

It's Buster's Way

5yo Gelding · 11-12

Navan · BAR 1 Casino 'Slot Games & Live Casino' Maiden Hurdle · 2m 3f

#15

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#15

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Well held in a pair of bumpers, fourteenth of 17 at Cork (2¼m, good to soft) 47 days ago. Makes hurdles debut. RESERVE

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move8
Strength0%

What the class read says

Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade.

Class-adjusted form 14.0 /10 (raw 14.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.0
Today:
Class gap: +8.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Punchestown 06/06/2026 · Pos 14th of 18 · OR - · 2m100y Goo 1686/06C?C0 @ Cork 03/08/2026 · Pos 14th of 17 · OR - · 2m2f Goo 1683/08C?projClass-projected finish: 15th of 19
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-03Cork?14th14th0
2026-06-06Punchestown?14th14th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/063/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish16th of 1917% of fieldRange 14-14 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength30%

Delivery trend -4.8% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 16th of 19. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/06/202614th33/10%24%+0.24
03/08/202614th80/10%19%+0.19