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Joly Saphir

5yo Gelding · 11-12

Navan · BAR 1 Casino 'Slot Games & Live Casino' Maiden Hurdle · 2m 3f

#11

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#11

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Twice-raced maiden, only twelfth of 14 in novice hurdle at Kilbeggan (2m, good) 16 days ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 10.0 /10 (raw 10.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Killarney 16/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR - · 2m4f85y Goo 15816/07C8C8 @ Kilbeggan 03/09/2026 · Pos 12th of 14 · OR - · 2m Goo 1583/09C8projClass-projected finish: 19th of 19
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-03Kilbeggan?12th12th0
2026-07-16Killarney?8th8th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/073/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 1933% of fieldRange 16-16 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength18%

Delivery trend +2.9% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 13th of 19. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/07/20268th100/10%13%+0.13
03/09/202612th125/10%15%+0.15