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Leonards Choice

5yo Mare · 11-5

Navan · BAR 1 Casino 'Slot Games & Live Casino' Maiden Hurdle · 2m 3f

#19

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#19

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Yet to offer much in 3 hurdling runs, twenty first of 25 in novice hurdle at Naas (2m, soft, 300/1) 8 months ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 17.0 /10 (raw 17.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Thurles 27/11/2025 · Pos 12th of 16 · OR - · 2m11y Goo 15327/11C8C8 @ Naas 15/12/2025 · Pos 18th of 20 · OR - · 2m3f Sft 15415/12C8C8 @ Naas 09/01/2026 · Pos 21st of 25 · OR - · 2m Yie 1599/01C8projClass-projected finish: 17th of 19
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-01-09Naas?21th21th0
2025-12-15Naas?18th18th0
2025-11-27Thurles?12th12th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/1115/129/01
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish19th of 190% of fieldRange 15-19 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength8%

Delivery trend -5.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 19th of 19. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/11/202512th100/10%27%+0.27
15/12/202518th300/10%11%+0.11
09/01/202621st300/10%17%+0.17