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5yo Gelding · 11-12

Navan · BAR 1 Casino 'Slot Games & Live Casino' Maiden Hurdle · 2m 3f

#6

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#6

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

50/1, considerately handled when seventh of 16 in novice hurdle at Killarney (2m, good to soft) on hurdles bow 28 days ago. Tongue strap goes on for first time. Capable of better.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 7.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Punchestown 02/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 16 · OR - · 2m Yie 1682/05C?C0 @ Galway 30/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 16 · OR - · 2m2f Gd 16830/07C?C8 @ Killarney 22/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 16 · OR - · 2m100y Goo 15822/08C8projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 19
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-22Killarney?7th7th0
2026-07-30Galway?9th9th0
2026-05-02Punchestown?5th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/0530/0722/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1989% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +24.9% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 19. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/05/20265th7/163%73%+0.10
30/07/20269th6/168%47%-0.22
22/08/20267th50/10%60%+0.60