Mr Devlin
5yo Gelding · 11-12 · OR 90
Navan · BAR 1 Casino 'Slot Games & Live Casino' Maiden Hurdle · 2m 3f
#1
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
18%
Place Prob
18%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 10.7 /10 (raw 10.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Kilbeggan | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-17 | Down Royal | ? | 12th | 11th | +1 |
| 2026-03-02 | Leopardstown | ? | 13th | 12th | +1 |
| 2026-02-19 | Thurles | BHA100 | 8th | 10th | −2 |
| 2026-01-09 | Naas | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-12-26 | Down Royal | ? | 15th | 15th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -4.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 19. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/11/2025 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 26/12/2025 | 15th | 125/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 09/01/2026 | 10th | 300/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 19/02/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 02/03/2026 | 13th | 25/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 17/03/2026 | 12th | 66/1 | 0% | 39% | +0.39 |
| 04/09/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |