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Returning Officer

6yo Gelding · 11-12

Navan · BAR 1 Casino 'Slot Games & Live Casino' Maiden Hurdle · 2m 3f

#17

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#17

★★ Timeform

Commentary

€100,000 purchase who has failed to progress in bumpers and was well held switched to hurdling at Sligo (17f, good) last time.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 6.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Navan 09/02/2025 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR - · 1m7f150y Sft 1689/02C?C0 @ Kilbeggan 15/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR - · 2m2f120y Gd 16815/05C?C0 @ Punchestown 06/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 18 · OR - · 2m100y Goo 1686/06C?C8 @ Sligo 12/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR - · 2m1f90y Gd 16612/07C8projClass-projected finish: 4th of 19
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-12Sligo?7th7th0
2026-06-06Punchestown?7th7th0
2026-05-15Kilbeggan?5th5th0
2025-02-09Navan?6th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/0215/056/0612/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish17th of 1911% of fieldRange 7-18 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength38%

Delivery trend -6.8% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 17th of 19. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/02/20256th9/276%50%-0.26
15/05/20265th6/168%60%-0.08
06/06/20267th9/276%65%-0.12
12/07/20267th5/493%45%-0.48