12
Cinnabar Moth
5yo Mare · 10-8 · OR 80
Navan · Millbrook Food Group 100 Years Celebration Handicap Hurdle (0-100) (Div 1) · 2m 3f
#17
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#17
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength6%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 7.3 /10 (raw 7.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | Tramore | BHA81 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Wexford | BHA82 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-07-03 | Wexford | BHA83 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-01 | Listowel | BHA84 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | Punchestown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-04 | Down Royal | ? | 15th | 15th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1950% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength96%
Delivery trend +7.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 19. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05/2025 | 12th | 8/1 | 58% | 21% | -0.36 |
| 31/05/2025 | 9th | 80/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 19/04/2026 | 8th | 80/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 04/05/2026 | 15th | 200/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 13/05/2026 | 5th | 250/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 01/06/2026 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 03/07/2026 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 58% | +0.53 |
| 23/07/2026 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 14/08/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 63% | +0.47 |