11
Demanding Gerry
7yo Mare · 10-12 · OR 84
Navan · Millbrook Food Group 100 Years Celebration Handicap Hurdle (0-100) (Div 1) · 2m 3f
#4
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength12%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 6.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.3
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Kilbeggan | BHA83 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | Kilbeggan | BHA85 | 0 | ||
| 2026-06-14 | Downpatrick | BHA86 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-27 | Wexford | BHA85 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-14 | Punchestown | BHA85 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2025-10-02 | Clonmel | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1978% of fieldRange 3-16 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength54%
Delivery trend -2.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 19. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/11/2024 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 23/05/2025 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 56% | +0.29 |
| 14/07/2025 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 90% | +0.19 |
| 25/07/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 92% | +0.07 |
| 02/10/2025 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 93% | +0.22 |
| 14/10/2025 | 12th | 10/3 | 82% | 42% | -0.40 |
| 27/05/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 92% | +0.34 |
| 14/06/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 77% | +0.08 |
| 03/09/2026 | 4th | 11/1 | 42% | 80% | +0.38 |