13
Leo Messy
6yo Gelding · 10-8 · OR 80
Navan · Millbrook Food Group 100 Years Celebration Handicap Hurdle (0-100) (Div 1) · 2m 3f
#9
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 9.4 /10 (raw 9.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 | Cork | BHA80 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Sligo | BHA81 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-04-04 | Fairyhouse | ? | 16th | 16th | 0 |
| 2026-03-29 | Downpatrick | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-03-08 | Naas | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 1933% of fieldRange 1-18 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength52%
Delivery trend -4.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 13th of 19. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/03/2026 | 10th | 150/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |
| 29/03/2026 | 10th | 125/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 04/04/2026 | 16th | 400/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 12/07/2026 | 8th | 9/2 | 76% | 46% | -0.30 |
| 03/08/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 87% | +0.34 |