14
Monty's Way
8yo Gelding · 10-3 · OR 75
Navan · Millbrook Food Group 100 Years Celebration Handicap Hurdle (0-100) (Div 1) · 2m 3f
#14
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#14
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 9.0 /10 (raw 7.9)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Galway | BHA76 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-28 | Wexford | BHA80 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-10 | Kilbeggan | BHA84 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-05-27 | Wexford | BHA86 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-11-21 | Fairyhouse | BHA89 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-10-04 | Gowran Park | BHA92 | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish16th of 1917% of fieldRange 6-18 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength40%
Delivery trend -0.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 16th of 19.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/05/2023 | 11th | 25/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 07/05/2024 | 1st | 40/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 21/01/2025 | 12th | 20/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 19/09/2025 | 6th | 28/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 21/11/2025 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 27/05/2026 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |
| 10/07/2026 | 10th | 25/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 28/08/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 36% | +0.21 |
| 07/09/2026 | 7th | 66/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |