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19

Mr Erwitt

7yo Gelding · 10-0 · OR 72

Navan · Millbrook Food Group 100 Years Celebration Handicap Hurdle (0-100) (Div 1) · 2m 3f

#13

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#13

★ Timeform

Commentary

Pulled up previous 4 starts. RESERVE

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength12%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 7.7)

Highest class: BHA79
Recent avg: C8.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Ballinrobe 11/08/2025 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR - · 2m169y Gd 15811/08C8C8 @ Sligo 20/08/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR - · 2m4f107y Gd 15820/08C8C8 @ Galway 08/09/2025 · Pos 9th of 16 · OR - · 2m160y Goo 1668/09C8projClass-projected finish: 18th of 19
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-29Galway?0
2026-07-12SligoBHA790
2025-10-18LimerickBHA820
2025-09-29RoscommonBHA850
2025-09-08Galway?9th9th0
2025-08-20Sligo?4th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today11/0820/088/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1956% of fieldRange 1-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength72%

Delivery trend +18.3% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 19. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
11/08/202510th66/10%10%+0.10
20/08/20254th100/10%50%+0.50
08/09/20259th250/10%47%+0.47