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16

Subset

12yo Gelding · 10-0 · OR 72

Navan · Millbrook Food Group 100 Years Celebration Handicap Hurdle (0-100) (Div 1) · 2m 3f

#16

Rank

Odds

50/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#16

★ Timeform

Commentary

Fair cross-country chaser who looked very rusty on return in a handicap chase at Ballinrobe (23f, good) 8 days ago. Entitled to still need this rare hurdle start.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength3%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 8.7 /10 (raw 8.9)

Highest class: BHA72
Recent avg: C7.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA84 @ Clonmel 17/02/2022 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR 84 · 2m4f Hvy 150 · below its mark17/02/2022 · OR 84 par17/0284OR 84BHA81 @ Punchestown 19/02/2023 · Pos 13th of 20 · OR 81 · 3m1f Yie 158 · below its mark19/02/2023 · OR 81 parBHA81 @ Punchestown 25/04/2023 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 81 · 3m1f Yie 161 · below its mark25/04/2023 · OR 81 par25/0481OR 81BHA81 @ Punchestown 29/04/2023 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 81 · 3m1f Goo 161 · beat its mark29/04/2023 · OR 81 parBHA81 @ Punchestown 10/06/2023 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 81 · 3m Goo 140 · below its mark10/06/2023 · OR 81 par10/0681OR 81BHA80 @ Down Royal 14/04/2024 · Pos 10th of 16 · OR 80 · 2m4f Yie 146 · below its mark14/04/2024 · OR 80 parBHA80 @ Tramore 16/08/2024 · Pos 15th of 15 · OR 80 · 2m5f Goo 140 · below its mark16/08/2024 · OR 80 par16/0880OR 80BHA78 @ Punchestown 01/05/2025 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 78 · 4m1f11y Yie 161 · below its mark01/05/2025 · OR 78 parBHA78 @ Le Lion D'angers 29/05/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 78 · 2m6f81y Sft 150 · below its mark29/05/2025 · OR 78 par29/0578OR 78projClass-projected finish: 14th of 19
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-11BallinrobeBHA720
2025-05-29Le Lion D'angersBHA782nd2nd0
2025-05-03PunchestownBHA780
2025-05-01PunchestownBHA789th9th0
2024-08-16TramoreBHA8015th15th0
2024-05-02PunchestownBHA780

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/0229/0416/0829/05
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish17th of 1911% of fieldRange 4-19 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength36%

Delivery trend -1.1% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 17th of 19.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/02/202211th66/10%23%+0.23
19/02/202313th80/10%37%+0.37
25/04/20233rd50/10%82%+0.82
29/04/20231st33/10%100%+1.00
10/06/20233rd3/184%78%-0.06
14/04/202410th40/10%40%+0.40
16/08/202415th80/10%0%0.00
01/05/20259th66/10%27%+0.27
29/05/20252nd16/116%86%+0.70