4
Tuckmill
10yo Gelding · 11-8 · OR 94
Navan · Millbrook Food Group 100 Years Celebration Handicap Hurdle (0-100) (Div 1) · 2m 3f
#12
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 9.8 /10 (raw 7.5)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C8.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | Bellewstown | BHA96 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-22 | Wexford | BHA109 | 0 | ||
| 2026-04-30 | Punchestown | 1 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-03-17 | Down Royal | BHA99 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-08-06 | Wexford | BHA114 | 0 | ||
| 2025-07-11 | Cork | BHA100 | 15th | 15th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 1928% of fieldRange 1-19 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength52%
Delivery trend +5.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 14th of 19. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09/2024 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 90% | +0.27 |
| 10/10/2024 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 44% | -0.27 |
| 01/11/2024 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 26/12/2024 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 13/01/2025 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 38% | -0.34 |
| 11/07/2025 | 15th | 12/1 | 37% | 13% | -0.24 |
| 17/03/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 65% | +0.65 |
| 30/04/2026 | 10th | 125/1 | 0% | 53% | +0.53 |
| 26/08/2026 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |