8
Bowgate Street
7yo Mare · 11-6 · OR 92
Navan · Millbrook Food Group 100 Years Celebration Handicap Hurdle (0-100) (Div 2) · 2m 3f
#2
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
42%
Place Prob
29%
Rank
#2
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength7%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 6.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C9.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Kilbeggan | BHA91 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-19 | Sligo | BHA91 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | Kilbeggan | BHA92 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-10 | Kilbeggan | BHA89 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-14 | Downpatrick | BHA90 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-05-26 | Ballinrobe | BHA91 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1983% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength81%
Delivery trend -1.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 19.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/04/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 63% | +0.47 |
| 24/04/2026 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 86% | +0.44 |
| 12/05/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 26/05/2026 | 8th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 14/06/2026 | 12th | 12/1 | 37% | 15% | -0.21 |
| 10/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 93% | +0.41 |
| 24/07/2026 | 7th | 17/2 | 55% | 60% | +0.05 |
| 19/08/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 83% | +0.18 |
| 03/09/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 87% | +0.34 |