11
Frontier Rose
5yo Mare · 10-11 · OR 83
Navan · Millbrook Food Group 100 Years Celebration Handicap Hurdle (0-100) (Div 2) · 2m 3f
#17
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#17
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength3%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 8.3 /10 (raw 8.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | Sligo | BHA84 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Sligo | BHA84 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Clonmel | BHA86 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Downpatrick | BHA89 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-12-26 | Leopardstown | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2025-11-27 | Thurles | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 1928% of fieldRange 7-14 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength47%
Delivery trend -1.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 14th of 19.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/10/2025 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 26/10/2025 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 16/11/2025 | 11th | 250/1 | 0% | 52% | +0.52 |
| 27/11/2025 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 47% | +0.47 |
| 26/12/2025 | 11th | 150/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 08/05/2026 | 10th | 22/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 05/06/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 53% | +0.53 |
| 12/07/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 64% | +0.48 |
| 06/08/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |