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9

Mother Ship

6yo Mare · 10-12 · OR 84

Navan · Millbrook Food Group 100 Years Celebration Handicap Hurdle (0-100) (Div 2) · 2m 3f

#4

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

8%

Place Prob

12%

Rank

#4

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Long-standing maiden. Runner-up previous 2 handicap hurdle starts. Finished ahead of a couple of next-time-out winners before coming from a less-than-ideal position when beaten 4 lengths at Newton Abbot latest. High on the shortlist in her current vein of form.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 5.9)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA87 @ Killarney 23/08/2025 · Pos 5th of 15 · OR 87 · 2m4f50y Goo 155 · below its mark23/08/2025 · OR 87 par23/0887OR 875 @ Stratford 06/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 4 · OR 97 · 2m6f7y Goo 167 · below its mark06/09/2025 · OR 97 parBHA86 @ Thurles 16/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 18 · OR 86 · 2m6f154y Goo 154 · below its mark16/10/2025 · OR 86 par16/1086OR 86BHA86 @ Sligo 12/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 16 · OR 86 · 2m4f Goo 155 · below its mark12/05/2026 · OR 86 parBHA85 @ Tramore 30/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 85 · 2m6f Goo 157 · below its mark30/05/2026 · OR 85 par30/0585OR 85BHA84 @ Killarney 16/07/2026 · Pos 10th of 14 · OR 84 · 2m4f85y Goo 152 · below its mark16/07/2026 · OR 84 parBHA81 @ Wexford 07/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 81 · 2m4f55y Goo 151 · below its mark07/08/2026 · OR 81 par7/0881OR 81BHA79 @ Sligo 19/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 16 · OR 79 · 2m4f148y Gd 149 · below its mark19/08/2026 · OR 79 par5 @ Newton Abbot 07/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 88 · 2m5f122y Gd 166 · beat its mark07/09/2026 · OR 88 par7/095OR 88projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 19
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-07Newton Abbot52nd2nd0
2026-08-19SligoBHA792nd2nd0
2026-08-07WexfordBHA817th7th0
2026-07-16KillarneyBHA8410th10th0
2026-05-30TramoreBHA858th8th0
2026-05-12SligoBHA868th8th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/0812/057/087/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 19100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +3.4% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 19. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/08/20255th11/271%71%+0.00
06/09/20252nd11/271%67%-0.04
16/10/20255th14/126%76%+0.50
12/05/20268th10/147%53%+0.06
30/05/20268th18/15%22%+0.17
16/07/202610th14/126%31%+0.04
07/08/20267th11/142%54%+0.12
19/08/20262nd12/137%93%+0.56
07/09/20262nd15/261%86%+0.25