7
Papagei
5yo Gelding · 11-8 · OR 94
Navan · Millbrook Food Group 100 Years Celebration Handicap Hurdle (0-100) (Div 2) · 2m 3f
#3
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
10%
Place Prob
14%
Rank
#3
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C8.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | Galway | BHA73 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Sligo | BHA94 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | Punchestown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-04 | Fairyhouse | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-29 | Downpatrick | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-03-08 | Naas | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1994% of fieldRange 1-13 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength90%
Delivery trend +1.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 19.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/07/2025 | 5th | 22/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 17/08/2025 | 9th | 6/1 | 68% | 20% | -0.48 |
| 14/09/2025 | 9th | 22/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 23/10/2025 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 08/03/2026 | 7th | 80/1 | 0% | 54% | +0.54 |
| 04/04/2026 | 5th | 200/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |
| 13/05/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 12/07/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 71% | +0.03 |
| 29/07/2026 | 10th | 28/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |