10
Simpletwistoffaith
9yo Gelding · 10-12 · OR 84
Navan · Millbrook Food Group 100 Years Celebration Handicap Hurdle (0-100) (Div 2) · 2m 3f
#19
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#19
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 9.0 /10 (raw 7.4)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Killarney | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-10-31 | Wetherby | 5 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-10-07 | Galway | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-09-01 | Roscommon | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2025-08-22 | Killarney | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-07-30 | Galway | ? | 13th | 13th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish18th of 196% of fieldRange 6-19 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength30%
Delivery trend +2.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 18th of 19. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/05/2024 | 7th | 66/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 30/05/2024 | 9th | 7/1 | 63% | 11% | -0.52 |
| 19/01/2025 | 5th | 250/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 30/07/2025 | 13th | 300/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 22/08/2025 | 8th | 250/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 01/09/2025 | 11th | 300/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 07/10/2025 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 31/10/2025 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 21/08/2026 | 7th | 300/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |