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Airds Moss

5yo Gelding · 11-12

Navan · Meath Farm Machinery Maiden Hurdle · 2m 5f

#2

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Promising individual. Bumper winner at Killarney in May. Fourth of 16 in maiden there (2m, good to soft) on hurdle debut 4 weeks ago. Up in trip. Likely to improve.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 2.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Cork 05/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 16 · OR - · 2m3f Yie 1685/04C?C0 @ Killarney 11/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR - · 2m1f Goo 16811/05C?C8 @ Killarney 22/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 16 · OR - · 2m100y Goo 16622/08C8projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 12
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-22Killarney?4th4th0
2026-05-11Killarney?1st1st0
2026-04-05Cork?2nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today5/0411/0522/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1859% of fieldRange 6-18 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength18%

Delivery trend -41.5% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 18. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
05/04/20262nd16/116%93%+0.78
11/05/20261st1/297%100%+0.03
22/08/20264th11/486%80%-0.06