3
Cap Bernat
13yo Gelding · 11-12 · OR 87
Navan · Meath Farm Machinery Maiden Hurdle · 2m 5f
#14
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#14
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Downpatrick | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-06-15 | Downpatrick | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2025-05-23 | Downpatrick | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2024-07-15 | Downpatrick | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2024-06-15 | Downpatrick | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2023-11-25 | Punchestown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 1824% of fieldRange 7-18 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength31%
Delivery trend -0.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 14th of 18.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/08/2023 | 4th | 22/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 15/09/2023 | 2nd | 22/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 15/10/2023 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 38% | +0.22 |
| 25/11/2023 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 15/06/2024 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 63% | +0.36 |
| 15/07/2024 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 90% | +0.32 |
| 23/05/2025 | 11th | 14/1 | 26% | 29% | +0.02 |
| 15/06/2025 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 31/08/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |