8
Mossy Way
6yo Gelding · 11-12
Navan · Meath Farm Machinery Maiden Hurdle · 2m 5f
#3
Rank
Odds
9/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#3
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼3
Strength23%
What the class read says
Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 8 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: +2.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-05 | Fairyhouse | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-18 | Punchestown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-02-02 | Leopardstown | 1 | 7th | -2th | +8 |
| 2025-12-29 | Leopardstown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-11-18 | Limerick | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-03-06 | Thurles | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 18100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +4.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 18. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/12/2024 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 83% | +0.01 |
| 28/12/2024 | 7th | 2/1 | 89% | 50% | -0.39 |
| 06/03/2025 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 82% | +0.14 |
| 18/11/2025 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 29/12/2025 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 63% | +0.57 |
| 02/02/2026 | 7th | 18/1 | 5% | 0% | -0.05 |
| 18/02/2026 | 4th | 11/1 | 42% | 50% | +0.08 |
| 05/04/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 92% | +0.23 |