IvyArcIvyArc
14

Pacy Macie

5yo Mare · 11-5 · OR 85

Navan · Meath Farm Machinery Maiden Hurdle · 2m 5f

#9

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Thrice-raced maiden under Rules. Best effort when fifth of 12 in maiden hurdle at Wexford (3m, soft) 22 days ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.7)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Wexford 03/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR - · 3m100y Gd 1513/07C8C8 @ Kilbeggan 21/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR - · 3m170y Goo 15121/08C8C8 @ Wexford 28/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR - · 3m50y Gd 15328/08C8projClass-projected finish: 9th of 12
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-28Wexford?5th5th0
2026-08-21Kilbeggan?6th6th0
2026-07-03Wexford?3rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today3/0721/0828/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1853% of fieldRange 1-18 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength41%

Delivery trend -8.2% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 18. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
03/07/20263rd40/10%80%+0.80
21/08/20266th50/10%29%+0.29
28/08/20265th28/10%64%+0.64