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11

Who's Going

4yo Gelding · 11-9 · OR 103

Navan · Meath Farm Machinery Maiden Hurdle · 2m 5f

#11

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

First form when fourth of 16 in maiden at Roscommon (2½m, good to soft) 46 days ago but will need to step up again to get heavily involved here.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 9.5 /10 (raw 9.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Punchestown 15/02/2026 · Pos 14th of 15 · OR - · 2m3f104y Hvy 15415/02C8C8 @ Gowran Park 07/03/2026 · Pos 8th of 18 · OR - · 2m50y Hvy 1567/03C8C8 @ Fairyhouse 04/04/2026 · Pos 12th of 25 · OR - · 2m4f Yie 1584/04C8C8 @ Roscommon 04/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 16 · OR - · 2m4f46y Yie 1624/08C8projClass-projected finish: 6th of 12
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-04Roscommon?4th4th0
2026-04-04Fairyhouse?12th12th0
2026-03-07Gowran Park?8th8th0
2026-02-15Punchestown?14th14th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/027/034/044/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1865% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +21.4% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 18. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/02/202614th40/10%7%+0.07
07/03/20268th100/10%59%+0.59
04/04/202612th250/10%54%+0.54
04/08/20264th33/10%80%+0.80