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Can Happen

6yo Gelding · 12-1 · OR 111

Navan · Start Your Racing TV Free Trial Now Ladies Handicap Hurdle · 2m 5f

#16

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#16

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

In a first-time tongue strap, made the perfect start for new connections when winning 15-runner handicap at Ballinrobe (2m) in May. Has shown fair form on the Flat either side of not being seen to best effect at Galway.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength5%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 5.9)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C10.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Punchestown 02/05/2025 · Pos 14th of 22 · OR - · 2m2f181y Yie 1682/05C?C8 @ Fairyhouse 04/11/2025 · Pos 5th of 16 · OR - · 2m Sft 158C8 @ Punchestown 13/11/2025 · Pos 7th of 21 · OR - · 1m7f187y Hvy 16613/11C8C8 @ Punchestown 04/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 110 · 2m3f17y Sft 166 · below its mark04/02/2026 · OR 110 parBHA107 @ Bellewstown 18/04/2026 · Pos 10th of 15 · OR 107 · 3m5y Yie 170 · below its mark18/04/2026 · OR 107 par18/04107OR 107BHA105 @ Ballinrobe 26/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 15 · OR 105 · 2m13y Goo 161 · beat its mark26/05/2026 · OR 105 parC0 @ Bellewstown 02/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR - · 1m4f71y Gd 1542/07C?BHA111 @ Galway 27/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 20 · OR 111 · 2m130y Gd 167 · below its mark27/07/2026 · OR 111 parC0 @ Killarney 21/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR - · 2m180y Gd 15821/08C?projClass-projected finish: 13th of 19
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-21Killarney?5th5th0
2026-07-27GalwayBHA1119th9th0
2026-07-02Bellewstown?2nd2nd0
2026-05-26BallinrobeBHA1051st1st0
2026-04-18BellewstownBHA10710th10th0
2026-03-05ThurlesBHA1080

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/054/022/0721/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish16th of 1917% of fieldRange 6-19 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength32%

Delivery trend -6.2% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 16th of 19. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/05/202514th80/10%38%+0.38
04/11/20255th12/137%73%+0.36
13/11/20257th25/10%70%+0.70
04/02/20263rd10/382%67%-0.16
18/04/202610th5/174%36%-0.38
26/05/20261st9/153%100%+0.47
02/07/20262nd17/255%83%+0.28
27/07/20269th15/261%58%-0.03
21/08/20265th7/163%43%-0.20