19
Kazbek
6yo Gelding · 10-12 · OR 94
Navan · Start Your Racing TV Free Trial Now Ladies Handicap Hurdle · 2m 5f
#14
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#14
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength25%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 6.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | Sligo | BHA95 | 0 | ||
| 2026-01-20 | Down Royal | BHA95 | 0 | ||
| 2026-01-12 | Punchestown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-12-14 | Navan | BHA94 | 0 | ||
| 2025-11-20 | Thurles | BHA94 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-10-18 | Limerick | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1950% of fieldRange 1-13 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength71%
Delivery trend +1.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 19.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/05/2025 | 11th | 100/1 | 0% | 47% | +0.47 |
| 28/05/2025 | 8th | 22/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 16/06/2025 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 62% | -0.12 |
| 04/07/2025 | 8th | 66/1 | 0% | 46% | +0.46 |
| 13/07/2025 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 44% | -0.27 |
| 27/08/2025 | 11th | 22/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 18/10/2025 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 78% | +0.25 |
| 20/11/2025 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 82% | +0.66 |
| 12/01/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 80% | +0.33 |