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Magic Day

7yo Mare · 12-0 · OR 110

Navan · Start Your Racing TV Free Trial Now Ladies Handicap Hurdle · 2m 5f

#8

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Has yet to add to her sole success at Kilbeggan in April 2025 but hit the frame for a second successive start there (19f) last month. Subsequently sold out of Henry de Bromhead's yard for £10,000. Tongue strap on for 1st time.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 5.7)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C10.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA108 @ Kilbeggan 25/04/2025 · Pos 1st of 15 · OR 108 · 2m3f100y Yie 166 · beat its mark25/04/2025 · OR 108 par25/04108OR 108BHA108 @ Punchestown 01/05/2025 · Pos 18th of 22 · OR 108 · 2m94y Yie 162 · below its mark01/05/2025 · OR 108 parC0 @ Wexford 26/10/2025 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR - · 2m3f130y Goo 15926/10C?BHA111 @ Thurles 20/12/2025 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 111 · 2m26y Yie 149 · below its mark20/12/2025 · OR 111 parBHA111 @ Punchestown 11/01/2026 · Pos 15th of 15 · OR 111 · 2m4f170y Sft 157 · below its mark11/01/2026 · OR 111 par11/01111OR 111C0 @ Tramore 20/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR - · 2m5f160y Goo 159BHA105 @ Downpatrick 13/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 105 · 2m3f100y Gd 161 · below its mark13/06/2026 · OR 105 par13/06105OR 105BHA110 @ Kilbeggan 24/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 110 · 2m2f200y Gd 166 · below its mark24/07/2026 · OR 110 parBHA110 @ Kilbeggan 21/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 15 · OR 110 · 2m2f200y Goo 166 · below its mark21/08/2026 · OR 110 par21/08110OR 110projClass-projected finish: 7th of 19
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-21KilbegganBHA1104th4th0
2026-07-24KilbegganBHA1102nd2nd0
2026-06-13DownpatrickBHA1056th6th0
2026-04-20Tramore?3rd3rd0
2026-01-11PunchestownBHA11115th15th0
2025-12-20ThurlesBHA1115th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/0420/1213/0621/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1983% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength86%

Delivery trend +4.8% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 19. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/04/20251st7/163%100%+0.37
01/05/202518th16/116%19%+0.03
26/10/20258th7/282%22%-0.59
20/12/20255th11/142%60%+0.18
11/01/202615th28/10%0%0.00
20/04/20263rd10/147%82%+0.34
13/06/20266th12/137%62%+0.25
24/07/20262nd8/158%89%+0.31
21/08/20264th12/137%79%+0.42